CBC gives word that the Canadians may be headed for an October election campaign. PM Steven Harper (Conservative Party) has effectively called for a confidence vote when the House of Commons reconvenes on 16 October.

While, like many things in a parliamentary system, it’s not for sure, preposturing like this will make it difficult for the other parties to put up with Harper’s government for another year, though the strategic option to prop him up a few more months and snipe him on a budget vote is always there. Such are the realities of a minority government.

Pragmatically, there are a few things to watch in the next Canadian federal election, whenever it is:

Québec

Québec has had a major political shakeup over the last couple years.   In the past, the province was a two-party system consisting of the Liberal Party, and federal and provincial sovereignty-movement parties (the provincial party, the Parti Québecois, is not identical to the federal Bloc Québecois).   Today, there appears to be a broader field.

The image of the Liberal Party in La Belle Province has been damaged by still-recent federal funding scandals, while the sovereignty parties lost a lot of steam in elections last year to resurgent Conservatives and the rightist ADQ.   Whether this trend continues, or if the Sovereignty movement can get back on its feet, is an important question not just for the makeup of the next parliament, but the future of Canada.

Look Left

Another major factor to watch for is the possible vote-splitting in the left.   The traditionally dominant Liberal Party is in a rebuilding phase, and new leader Stéphane Dion will be going into his first campaign as leader.   In the last election, the NDP had the strongest showing in 20 years, and its moves in Parliament have had significant impact in the minority government.   Also, the Green Party is continuing on its quest to earn a seat in Parliament, and seems set to have another go at all 308 ridings.

Atlantic Tides

There’s a chink in the blue armour though:   The Conservative Party’s most noticeable row has been between the federal and the Newfoundland and Labrador governments. Stephen Harper has snubbed Progressive-Conservative Premier Danny Williams on several recent occasions. Harper has continued the Martin government’s stance on Newfoundland’s offshore oil revenues, which hasn’t earned points in St. John’s. How will that translate when elections come around?

It should be very interesting to watch.